Answer first
The operating evidence is unchanged. Acquisition-aware enterprise FCF DCF produces a similar weighted value but a materially wider downside range. Sizing falls from core to starter.
Primary method: enterprise FCF DCF. Cross-checks: enterprise normalized EBITA and normalized EPS P/E. No mechanical averaging.
Scenario construction
| Case | Probability | FCF 2027 | FCF 2031 | Pro forma net debt | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | $3.36bn | $4.59bn | $20.0bn | $22.32 |
| Base | 50% | $4.08bn | $6.94bn | $18.0bn | $53.10 |
| Bull | 25% | $4.59bn | $9.22bn | $17.0bn | $96.35 |
Weighted value $56.2180. Expected return 11.6%.
Five pillars
| Pillar | Prior | Revised |
|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| Management Quality | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Industry Tailwind | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Valuation | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 4.5 | 3.0 |
| Conviction | 6.59 | 6.44 |
Old versus revised
Bear $36.60 to $22.32. Base $55.20 to $53.10. Bull $77.00 to $96.35. Weighted $56.00 to $56.22. Core long to starter long.
Frozen evidence
Research cutoff 25 August 2026. Reference price $50.37 at 21 August 2026 close. Historical U.S. GAAP facts and operating evidence are unchanged. The immutable original package and prechange public files are hashed.