Answer first
Normalized owner EPS and P/E remains primary, but the revised method charges recurring costs, cash conversion, liabilities, debt, dilution, and repurchase discipline. Targets change. Conviction and decision do not because no rubric band changed.
Company-specific method
Primary: normalized owner EPS and P/E. Cross-checks: enterprise FCF DCF and enterprise normalized EBIT or EBITA. Revenue multiples, EV/EBITDA, and unallocated segment SOTP can mislead.
Bear, Base, Bull
| Case | Probability | Common earnings | Shares | EPS | P/E | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | $5.109bn | 119.5m | $42.75 | 16.5x | $705.38 |
| Base | 50% | $5.593bn | 113.0m | $49.50 | 19.0x | $940.50 |
| Bull | 25% | $5.940bn | 108.0m | $55.00 | 21.5x | $1182.50 |
Weighted value: $942.218750000000. Expected return: 7.83%.
Five pillar scorecard
| Pillar | Weight | Prior | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 30% | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Management Quality | 15% | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Industry Tailwind | 15% | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| Valuation | 30% | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Risk / Asymmetry | 10% | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| Conviction | 100% | 7.1 | 7.1 |
What matters
Gross profit per transaction, segment profit, customer and supplier concentration, specialty and GLP 1 economics, working capital, legal payments, Wellverse, acquisition returns, debt, diluted shares, and repurchase price.