Decision
Starter long
Conviction
6.3
Weighted
$641.18
Base
$526.24
Expected return
-33.7%
Cycle-adjusted enterprise UFCF DCF
Volume, pricing, HBM mix, utilization, gross margin, opex, tax, capex, working capital, discount rate, terminal economics, net cash, and dilution are explicit. The method was selected before targets.
Historical original comparison, not active: $600 Bear, $1,100 Base, $1,640 Bull, and $1,110 weighted value.
Same method across scenarios
| Case | Probability | Target | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | $155.66 | -83.9% |
| Base | 50% | $526.24 | -45.6% |
| Bull | 25% | $1356.57 | 40.3% |
| Weighted | 100% | $641.18 | -33.7% |
Conviction revision
| Pillar | Old | New |
|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| Management Quality | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Industry Tailwind | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Valuation and Margin of Safety | 5.8 | 2.8 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Conviction | 7.300 | 6.250 |