Answer first
Nebius has proven demand. Capacity conversion, capex, financing, and dilution determine per share value.
Company specific valuation method
Segment SOTP with a capacity cohort enterprise unlevered FCF DCF for Nebius AI, conservative separately stated values for smaller businesses, and a liquidation floor in the bear case.
Contracted power and pipeline receive no operating value until converted into live, accepted, utilized capacity.
Bear, base, and bull construction
| Scenario | Probability | Revenue producing MW | Revenue per MW | EBITDA margin | Diluted shares | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25.0% | 250 to 700 | $18.0m | 25.0% | 360m | $26.39 |
| Base | 50.0% | 350 to 1300 | $22.5m | 38.0% | 330m | $96.80 |
| Bull | 25.0% | 450 to 2000 | $25.0m | 45.0% | 315m | $363.30 |
Capacity to cash flow bridge
Capacity
Only revenue producing MW count. Contracted, connected, live, and utilized states stay separate.
Cash flow
Revenue becomes EBITDA, D&A, EBIT, NOPAT, then UFCF after growth capex, maintenance, and working capital.
Per share
Scenario funding and dilution vary. Bear, base, and bull use 360, 330, and 315 million shares.
Five pillar scorecard
| Pillar | Weight | Historical | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 30.0% | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| Management Quality | 15.0% | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Industry Tailwind | 15.0% | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Valuation and Margin of Safety | 30.0% | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 10.0% | 3.5 | 2.5 |
Observable signals
Bear
Revenue producing capacity misses 550 MW by 2029, utilization or revenue per MW falls below $18 million, contract financing weakens, and capex remains above funding.
Base
Revenue producing capacity reaches about 850 MW by 2029, revenue per MW holds near $22.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA converts to positive UFCF after build capex.
Bull
Revenue producing capacity exceeds 1.2 GW by 2029, pricing and utilization sustain $25 million per MW, and capex per MW falls without contract deterioration.
Evidence controls
Price, cutoff, filings, transcripts, operating evidence, source set, and capital stack are frozen. Reported revenue, adjusted EBITDA, operating loss, net income or loss, capex, prepayment driven cash flow, cash, debt, shares, dilution, acquisitions, and discontinued Toloka are separately defined.
Worker evidence is not parent independent acceptance.