Answer first
The operating evidence is unchanged. Risk-adjusted franchise and pipeline SOTP replaces normalized EPS times P/E. Commercial enterprise FCF and pipeline rNPV are separated. Weighted value is below the frozen price, so starter sizing moves to pass.
Primary risk: realized price and share fall together while manufacturing and science remain capital intensive.
Primary method and scenarios
Enterprise value equals PV of commercial FCF, plus PV terminal value, plus pipeline rNPV. Equity value subtracts DKK 95.145bn net debt. ADR value divides by 4.441bn diluted shares and DKK 6.50 per USD. One ADR equals one B share.
| Case | Probability | FCF Y1 | FCF Y5 | Pipeline rNPV | ADR target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | DKK 42.0bn | DKK 35.0bn | DKK 25bn | $10.85 |
| Base | 50% | DKK 52.0bn | DKK 84.0bn | DKK 90bn | $36.90 |
| Bull | 25% | DKK 60.0bn | DKK 140.0bn | DKK 180bn | $85.49 |
Five pillars
| Pillar | Weight | Prior | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 30% | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Management Quality | 15% | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Industry Tailwind | 15% | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Valuation and Margin of Safety | 30% | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 10% | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Conviction | 100% | 6.10 | 5.47 |
Old versus revised
| Metric | Prior | Revised |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $26.92 | $10.85 |
| Base | $51.92 | $36.90 |
| Bull | $83.08 | $85.49 |
| Weighted | $53.46 | $42.54 |
| Decision | Starter long | Pass / watch |
Frozen evidence and reconciliation
Reference price, research cutoff, filings, financial facts, FX at DKK 6.50 per USD, and one to one ADR ratio are unchanged. Exact old targets come from the final original workbook formulas. Both original PDFs and Decision workbook cell B6 control prior conviction at 6.1. An auxiliary workbook score sheet and the old web page implied 6.15. The discrepancy is recorded rather than hidden.