Answer first
SoFi remains Core Long. A bank aware SOTP replaces the historical forward P/E scenarios. Historical original weighted value was $20.20. Revised active weighted value is $18.189686864.
Company specific valuation method
Segment SOTP, residual income for Lending and Bank, normalized contribution profit for Financial Services, revenue cross check for Technology Platform, then consolidated equity reconciliation.
Why it fits
Deposits and lending facilities are operating funding. Residual income charges the bank for capital. Member and technology economics receive matched methods.
Why alternatives can mislead
Industrial UFCF and net debt treatment distort a lender. P/E hides mix. Tangible book misses platforms. Technology EV multiples apply only to Technology.
Bear, base, and bull
| Scenario | Probability | Bank | Financial Services | Technology | Equity | Shares | Target | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | $5.13B | $4.30B | $0.76B | $9.93B | 1.36B | $7.303356643 | -59.2% |
| Base | 50% | $12.30B | $10.43B | $1.92B | $24.72B | 1.32B | $18.726446281 | 4.5% |
| Bull | 20% | $20.58B | $17.70B | $3.48B | $42.47B | 1.28B | $33.177283654 | 85.1% |
Weighted value $18.189686864. Expected return 1.50%.
Weighted scorecard
| Pillar | Weight | Historical | Revised | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 30% | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.400 |
| Management Quality | 15% | 7.5 | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Industry Tailwind | 15% | 7.8 | 7.8 | 1.170 |
| Valuation and Margin of Safety | 30% | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.500 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 10% | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Conviction | 100% | 6.995, displayed 7.0 | 6.595 | 6.595 |
Primary financial evidence
| Period | GAAP Net Revenue | GAAP Net Income Attributable to Parent | Diluted EPS | Share Based Compensation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2.122789 | -0.300742 | -0.360000 | 0.271216 |
| FY2024 | 2.674859 | 0.498665 | 0.390000 | 0.246152 |
| FY2025 | 3.613354 | 0.481320 | 0.390000 | 0.262058 |
| TTM Jun 2026 | 4.305695 | 0.636264 | 0.490000 | 0.283923 |
The top line is Revenues, Net of Interest Expense. It is not gross profit. TTM uses the exact FY plus current YTD minus prior YTD bridge.
Observable signals
Failure signals are personal loan losses above 8%, NIM below 5%, capital pressure, stalled Financial Services contribution, Technology client loss, or diluted shares above 1.36 billion.
Confirmation requires controlled credit, lower funding cost, contribution profit per member, Technology recovery, tangible book growth, and buybacks exceeding issuance.
Downloads
Original initial assessment
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Original deep report
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Original workbook
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Original workspace
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Revised initial assessment
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Revised deep teaching report
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Method delta PDF
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Formula workbook
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Method note
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Assumptions control
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Financial manifest
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Revised workspace
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