Reference price
$136.97
Weighted value
$16.72
Expected return
-87.8%
Conviction
4.98
Current revised view
PASS. Segment SOTP using unlevered FCF DCF. No standalone Starship or Cursor option value.
| Case | Probability | Target | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | $5.73 | -95.8% |
| Base | 50% | $15.62 | -88.6% |
| Bull | 20% | $35.94 | -73.8% |
Historical comparison, explicitly archived
Original historical targets were $50, $105, and $210 with weighted value $109.50. They are not current targets.
Company specific method
Segment SOTP using unlevered FCF DCF for Connectivity, Launch and AI in every scenario, followed by one consolidated net cash and dilution bridge. Starship and Cursor receive no standalone option value.
Connectivity, Launch, and AI use distinct cash flow bridges and discount rates. Segment EVs are added once, net cash is added once, and dilution is applied once.
Forecast bridges
| Segment | Current annualized revenue | Current op margin | Current capex/revenue | Base 2031 revenue | Base 2031 FCF margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | $17.16bn | 38.6% | 31.9% | $52.1bn | 34.0% |
| Launch | $3.85bn | -56.3% | 122.0% | $6.8bn | 12.0% |
| AI | $10.24bn | -49.1% | 618.0% | $31.0bn | 10.0% |
See the report and workbook for each annual bear, base, and bull value.