Answer first
Enterprise normalized EBITA replaces adjusted EPS and P/E as the primary method. Exact revised targets are $348.2219251336898, $536.5853658536586, and $871.2328767123288. Weighted value is $573.1563833883340. The market is above base value. Conviction moves from 6.945 to 6.435, displayed 6.44.
Original sizing discrepancy: exact 6.945 maps to Core under the formal map, while the authoritative original card said Starter Long. The original is retained unchanged.
Company-specific valuation method
Primary: enterprise normalized EBITA. Normalize purchase accounting amortization and truly nonrecurring items only. Retain recurring stock compensation, restructuring, integration, capex, working capital, tax, goodwill, debt, dilution, and acquisition economics. Enterprise FCF DCF and normalized EPS P/E are cross checks, not averaged. Segment SOTP and EV EBITDA can mislead.
Scenario construction
| Case | Probability | 2028 revenue | Margin | EBITA | Multiple | Net debt | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | $48.5bn | 19.5% | $9.4575bn | 18.0x | $40.0bn | $348.22 |
| Base | 50% | $52.0bn | 22.5% | $11.7000bn | 20.0x | $36.0bn | $536.59 |
| Bull | 25% | $58.0bn | 25.0% | $14.5000bn | 24.0x | $30.0bn | $871.23 |
Revised scorecard
| Pillar | Old | New |
|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Management | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Industry | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| Valuation | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Risk | 6.0 | 4.5 |
Exact conviction 6.435, displayed 6.44. Starter Long.
Transmission risks
Demand, China, pricing, PPI productivity, capacity utilization, customer concentration, regulatory and quality failures, goodwill, dilution, acquisition integration, and capital allocation can reduce EBITA, cash conversion, debt reduction, and the supported multiple.