Answer first
Mobility and Delivery drive operating value. Enterprise DCF separates those economics from volatile investment marks, working capital, and financing.
Company specific valuation method
Five year enterprise unlevered free cash flow DCF with a segment informed revenue and operating margin bridge, followed by a diluted per share capital bridge.
AV receives zero separate value without frozen unit economics. Normalized P/E, equity FCF, reverse DCF, SOTP, justified FCF yield, and peers are cross checks.
Bear, base, and bull construction
| Scenario | Probability | Growth | EBIT margin | WACC | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 20.0% | 8.0% to 4.0% | 11.0% to 12.0% | 11.5% | $36.36 |
| Base | 55.0% | 15.0% to 8.0% | 13.0% to 18.0% | 9.5% | $88.72 |
| Bull | 25.0% | 18.0% to 10.0% | 14.0% to 21.0% | 8.5% | $147.88 |
Operating and capital bridge
Operations
Revenue to EBIT to NOPAT to UFCF. Working capital and capex are explicit.
Capital
Cash and haircutted investments, less debt and redeemable NCI, add $2.515B.
Per share
Equity value is divided by 2.061B diluted shares. SBC remains in GAAP EBIT.
Five pillar scorecard
| Pillar | Weight | Historical | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 30.0% | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Management Quality | 15.0% | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| Industry Tailwind | 15.0% | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Valuation and Margin of Safety | 30.0% | 7.6 | 6.5 |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 10.0% | 7.8 | 6.0 |
Observable signals
Bear
Bookings growth moves below 12 percent, insurance and regulation absorb scale gains, segment profit stops outgrowing bookings, and AV fleets weaken take rate.
Base
Mobility and Delivery sustain mid teens growth initially, margins expand, working capital normalizes, dilution stays controlled, and AV remains neutral to modestly positive.
Bull
Local liquidity deepens, Delivery advertising scales, insurance intensity improves, AV partners use Uber distribution on attractive terms, and cash conversion remains strong.
Evidence controls
Price, cutoff, filings, transcripts, operating evidence, and source set are frozen. Gross bookings, GAAP revenue, segment income, GAAP operating income, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, free cash flow, reported net income, stock compensation, shares, and principal versus agent presentation are separately defined.
Worker evidence is not parent independent acceptance.