What changed
This is a methodology reassessment. The original evidence is frozen. The primary method now matches an integrated insurer and health services company. It normalizes earnings and adds only capital that can remain distributable after regulatory and corporate needs.
$428.38
$386.39
$270 / $440 / $563.50
$262.89 / $407.64 / $518.52
Normalized earnings plus excess capital
Target equals normalized 2027 EPS times a justified P/E, plus residual distributable excess capital per projected diluted share. Industrial EV to EBITDA is rejected.
| Case | Probability | Normalized EPS | Multiple | Excess per share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | $18.13 | 14.5x | $0.00 | $262.89 |
| Base | 50% | $21.40 | 19.0x | $1.11 | $407.64 |
| Bull | 20% | $23.42 | 22.0x | $3.35 | $518.52 |
Including modeled dividends through year end 2027, weighted total value is $399.73, a 0.2% expected total return.
Reassessment scorecard
| Pillar | Old | New | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 7.4 | 7.4 | Preserved |
| Management Quality | 5.0 | 5.0 | Preserved |
| Industry Tailwind | 6.5 | 6.5 | Preserved |
| Valuation | 5.5 | 5.5 | Same roughly fair band |
| Risk and Asymmetry | 4.2 | 4.2 | Same fat tail band |
| Conviction | 6.015 | 6.015 | Delta 0.000 |
Null hypothesis: lower normalized earnings, less distributable capital, or higher bear probability would have reduced conviction.
Downloads
Active valuation method revision
Revised deep teaching report, PDFRevised assessment, PDFRevised formula driven workbookOld versus new delta memoRevised workspace archiveOriginal immutable assessment
Original deep teaching report, unchangedOriginal PDF report, unchangedOriginal workbook, unchangedOriginal workspace, unchangedEvidence boundary
The 2025 Form 10 K, Q2 2026 Form 10 Q, Q2 release, original transcripts, SEC metadata, company facts, and dated reference price are unchanged. No later operating or price data was introduced.
Source and method noteFinancial fact check manifest