Weighted
$170.05
Conviction
7.9/10
Decision
Full position
Method
SOTP + DCF
Revised current scenarios
| Bear | Base | Bull | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| $78.31 | $171.48 | $258.94 | $170.05 |
Original historical comparison dated 23 August 2026: $95 / $175 / $240, weighted $171.25. Original values are not current targets.
Company specific valuation method
Analytical segment SOTP using enterprise unlevered FCF DCF for generation ex nuclear, retail, zero-carbon and nuclear, less closure/corporate and net debt. Nuclear is assigned once. Retail transfer economics and hedge effects are not double counted.
Cross-checks
- Normalized FCF yield
- Replacement cost and sum of capacity
- Justified normalized EV/EBITDA
Current to forecast calibration
| Variable | Current | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| generation volume | about 44,000 MW fleet; FY2025 output by fuel not fully reconstructible from frozen summary | [0.94, 0.93, 0.93, 0.92, 0.92] | [1, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04] | [1.03, 1.06, 1.09, 1.12, 1.15] |
| realized power price | hedged regional portfolio; exact frozen $/MWh ladder unavailable | [0.88, 0.86, 0.87, 0.89, 0.91] | [1, 1.02, 1.04, 1.06, 1.08] | [1.07, 1.12, 1.17, 1.22, 1.27] |
| hedge capture | disciplined forward hedge book; realized/unrealized effects separate | [1.04, 1.02, 0.98, 0.94, 0.92] | [1.03, 1.02, 1.01, 1, 1] | [1.01, 0.99, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96] |
| capacity revenue | PJM and bilateral capacity embedded in FY2025 EBITDA | [0.9, 0.88, 0.9, 0.92, 0.94] | [1, 1.03, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06] | [1.08, 1.13, 1.18, 1.22, 1.25] |
| retail load | about 5 million customers | [0.97, 0.96, 0.96, 0.97, 0.98] | [1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 1.05] | [1.02, 1.04, 1.06, 1.08, 1.1] |
| retail margin | FY2025 Retail adjusted EBITDA $1.622bn | [0.9, 0.88, 0.88, 0.9, 0.92] | [1, 1.02, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06] | [1.05, 1.09, 1.12, 1.15, 1.18] |
| fuel operating cost | FY2025 fuel/purchased power/delivery $9.101bn; operating costs $2.803bn | [1.07, 1.08, 1.08, 1.07, 1.06] | [1.02, 1.02, 1.01, 1.01, 1] | [0.99, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96, 0.95] |
| plant availability | fleet-specific capacity factors not fully preserved | [0.94, 0.93, 0.93, 0.94, 0.94] | [0.97, 0.97, 0.975, 0.975, 0.98] | [0.98, 0.985, 0.985, 0.99, 0.99] |
| ebitda margin | FY2025 adjusted EBITDA $5.838bn versus GAAP operating income $1.906bn | [0.88, 0.86, 0.87, 0.89, 0.91] | [1, 1.04, 1.07, 1.1, 1.12] | [1.08, 1.16, 1.23, 1.29, 1.35] |
| maintenance capex | FY2025 total capex $2.752bn; exact maintenance split unavailable | [2100, 2200, 2250, 2300, 2350] | [2000, 2050, 2100, 2150, 2200] | [2050, 2100, 2200, 2300, 2400] |
| growth capex | Helix commitment up to $1bn is prospective, not operating EBITDA | [400, 300, 250, 200, 150] | [700, 750, 700, 600, 500] | [1100, 1300, 1400, 1300, 1100] |
| working capital | commodity collateral and margin deposits material | [500, 450, 400, 350, 300] | [350, 350, 325, 300, 275] | [600, 650, 650, 600, 550] |
| taxes | FY2025 tax expense $179m; 1H26 $305m | [0.2, 0.2, 0.21, 0.21, 0.21] | [0.21, 0.21, 0.22, 0.22, 0.22] | [0.22, 0.22, 0.23, 0.23, 0.23] |
| terminal economics | finite plant lives, nuclear license value and closure obligations | [0.095, 0.005] | [0.085, 0.02] | [0.08, 0.025] |
| net debt | 20073 | [20100, 20100, 20100, 20100, 20100] | [19500, 19000, 18500, 18250, 18000] | [19000, 18000, 17000, 16000, 15000] |
| buybacks dilution | 335.635m market shares; 340.541m 1H26 diluted average | [340, 342, 343, 344, 345] | [333, 330, 328, 326, 325] | [328, 322, 317, 313, 310] |
Five pillars
| Pillar | Original | Revised |
|---|---|---|
| business_quality | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| management_quality | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| industry_tailwind | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| valuation | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| risk_asymmetry | 6.0 | 5.0 |
Only Risk / Asymmetry changes rubric band, 6.0 to 5.0. Exact conviction 7.865.