Method before targets
Enterprise unlevered FCF DCF is primary. It explicitly reconciles companion animal and livestock demand, U.S. and international growth, price/volume/mix, innovation, regulation, manufacturing/capacity, margins, capex, working capital, debt and dilution.
SOTP, justified EV/EBITDA or P/E, and growth-duration/ROIC are cross-checks only and are not averaged.
DCF scenarios
| Case | Probability | WACC | g | Target | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 9.00% | 2.0% | $44.18 | -42.7% |
| Base | 50% | 8.00% | 3.0% | $98.49 | 27.6% |
| Bull | 25% | 7.25% | 3.5% | $168.13 | 117.9% |
Weighted value $102.32. No future acquisition value is credited. Existing net debt and diluted shares are explicit.
Current to forecast
2026 starts at $9.220bn guidance: $6.290bn companion animal, $2.810bn livestock and $0.120bn other. TTM gross margin was 71.7%; TTM operating margin 36.6%; FCF $2.349bn; net debt $7.372bn; diluted shares 420.1m.
Every annual case bridges price, volume, mix, regional growth, gross/operating margins, R&D, SG&A, tax, working capital, capex, D&A, FCF conversion, WACC, terminal growth, net debt, acquisitions and dilution. See workbook and report.
Method-affected scores only
Business Quality 5.0, Management 4.5 and Industry 7.5 are unchanged. Valuation changes 7.5→8.0 under R1. Risk changes 6.0→5.5 under R2. Conviction changes 6.15→6.25; Starter Long remains.
Revised downloads
Immutable originals
Original 25 August artifacts remain preserved in the research package and pre-revision archive.